Real-time modelling and forecasting of infectious disease dynamics

Illustration of a forecast made during an outbreak

We are a research group based at the Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases of the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine developing methodology and tools for real-time modelling and forecasting of infectious disease outbreaks. We systematically assess these methods by their predictive ability and apply them in order to improve decision making. Ultimately, our goal is to develop and use robust methodology that makes the most of available resources to provide insights useful for outbreak response, control and prevention, and to make them available as tools to others.

We are currently mainly funded by the Wellcome Trust and work in collaboration with a number of other research groups, public health agencies such as the European Centre for Disease Control and Prevention and non-governmental organisations such as Médecins Sans Frontières.