This is our evaluation of forecasting models and individual forecasters who have contributed forecasts of Covid-19 case and death numbers in Germany and Poland. These forecasts were submitted to the German and Polish Forecast Hub each week. Currently, we submit an unweighted mean ensemble to the Forecast Hub, but this will likely be changed in the future. We will transition to submitting forecasts to the European Forecast Hub in the future. The evaluations are our own and not authorised by the German Forecast Hub team. We cannot rule out mistakes and the analyses are subject to change.
Note that forecasts have now shifted to the European Forecast Hub. You can find our evaluation for these forecasts here.
If you have questions or want to give feedback, please create an issue on our github repository
You can register to become a forecaster here.
Here is an overall ranking of all forecasters. The ranking is made according to relative skill. Relative skill is calculated by looking at all pairwise comparisons between forecasters in terms of the weighted interval score (WIS). See below for a more detailed explanation of the scoring metrics used. ‘Overall’ shows the complete ranking, ‘latest’ only spans the last 5-6 weeks of data. ‘Detailed’ represents the full data set that you can download for your own analysis.
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