Estimates were derived from the modelled daily and weekly data published weekly as part of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey by the Office of National Statistics. Prevalence and incidence estimates are shown for the last year, and reproduction number for the past three months.

Please consider the limitations mentioned in the manuscript before interpreting the plots.

Code to reproduce the results and links to data tables with estimates are available at https://github.com/epiforecasts/inc2prev.

National estimates

PCR+ prevalence

Proportion testing PCR positive.

Infection incidence

Daily proportion newly infected.

Growth rate

Growth rate of new infections.

R

Infection reproduction number.

Cumulative incidence

Cumulative incidence of infections, including reinfections.

Proportion ever infected

Crude estimate of the number of people ever infected under the extremely simplifying assumption that the risk of infection is independent of prior infection or vaccination status.

Regional estimates

PCR+ prevalence

Proportion testing PCR positive.

Infection incidence

Daily proportion newly infected.

Growth rate

Growth rate of new infections.

R

Infection reproduction number.

Cumulative incidence

Cumulative incidence of infections, including reinfections.

Proportion ever infected

Crude estimate of the number of people ever infected under the extremely simplifying assumption that the risk of infection is independent of prior infection or vaccination status.

Age estimates

PCR+ prevalence

Proportion testing PCR positive.

Infection incidence

Daily proportion newly infected.

Growth rate

Growth rate of new infections.

R

Infection reproduction number.

Cumulative incidence

Cumulative incidence of infections, including reinfections.

Proportion ever infected

Crude estimate of the number of people ever infected under the extremely simplifying assumption that the risk of infection is independent of prior infection or vaccination status.

License

This project uses data from the Office for National Statistics Community Infection Survey, which is licensed under the Open Government License v3.0.