Projects
Ongoing analysis projects from the group
Ongoing analysis and research projects from the group. For completed work, see our publications. For reusable tools, see our software.
BVDOutbreakSize
Joint Bayesian generative Turing model for the 2026 DRC BVD outbreak. Combines exports, deaths and reported suspected cases (with ascertainment) in a single posterior. Includes a no-onward-transmission deaths lower bound.
andv-linelist-analysis
Joint estimation of incubation period, transmission timing, and R(t) for the Epuyén ANDV outbreak
eval-by-method
Thematic analysis of model performance in the European COVID-19 Forecast Hub
evalwwforecasts
Evaluation of forecasts with and without incorporating wastewater
mme-review
Systematic review of multi-model ensemble evaluations in infectious disease
bdbv-linelist-analysis
Bayesian re-analysis of the 2012 Isiro Bundibugyo Ebola virus line list (Rosello et al. 2015)
llm-epi-composition
Evaluating LLM ability to compose epidemic models with and without validated components
evalvariantnowcasthub
A code repository to characterise and evaluate data and nowcasts on SARS-CoV-2 variant dynamics in the U.S. from the U.S. variant nowcast hub
delayscompare
Assessing the impact of misspecifying epidemiological distributions on predictive performance.
attenuated-renewal
Bayesian forecasting using attenuated renewal-based methods for overdispersed contact networks
sc_model_comparison
Model comparison study on social contact data.
sc_heavy_tail_mean
NPIs and social contact relationship
UDEs_recovering_functional_forms
Recovering the behavioural response during an epidemic using universal differential equations and symbolic regression.
evalbehtransmission
Evaluation of nowcasting and forecasting using behavioural data including CoMix and Google Mobility
ComposableProbabilisticIDModels
No description available