2021-11-11
The backend issue has been resolved and estimates are being produced again.
2021-10-21
We are not currently updating estimates due to an issue with our backend infrastructure. We hope to resolve this in the next few weeks.
2021-06-28
Stop plotting forecasts. These can still be found in the summary files.
2021-01-13
Site design updated to include a page per geography and to reduce page load times.
2020-12-17
Due to the ECDC switching to weekly data we have update our global data source to be the WHO.
2020-09-18
2020-08-28
- Rebased estimates to use
EpiNow2.
- Switched data source to
covidregionaldata.
- Added subnational estimates for Canada.
- Restricted estimates reported to the last 12 weeks of data.
- Updated methods and landing page to link to the new approach.
2020-05-17
- Added regional estimates for Brazil and India
- Approximate sampling is now adaptive. Sampling is exact when cases are below 10,000 in a region and after this point it is approximate.
- Incubation period is now explicitly sampled from with right-truncation dealt with in the same way as for imputed onsets.
- Time window for the effective reproduction window is now optimised at every time point.
- Changed to using a generation time estimate rather than a serial interval estimate (deals with the enforced positivity of the serial interval).
- Switched to using the
forecastHybrid package for generating forecasts as the fable package was shown to have a memory leak when used at scale.
- Moved to using a quasipoisson model for estimating the rate of growth and the doubling time.
- Corrected the sources for the UK and German regional data sources.
2020-05-02
- Switched to approximate sampling of the delay distribution.
- Forecasts are now only shown for countries/regions that have reported at least 200 cases in the last 7 days.
2020-04-25
- Added short term forecasting results.
- Fixed Germany regional map.
- Update plots.
- Fixed doubling time confidence intervals.
- Update palette.
2020-04-18
- Updated the UK data source.
- Fixed data extraction for German regions
- Reduced the lower bound on the number of cases needed to be included in the global nowcast from 100 to 60.
- Squashed the NA category from appearing in the USA map.
2020-04-09
- Updated all estimates with latest data.
- Corrected a mismatch between the data used for the USA on national and statewide level.
- Added additional text explaining why estimates are lagged.
- Updated wording to highlight date of estiamtes.
2020-03-31
- New website to display results.
- Regional breakdowns added for Germany, United Kingdom, and the United States of America.
- National estimates added for all countries that have reported at least 100 cases in a day.
- Update approach to optimise the window used when estimating the Reproduction number.
Corrections
If you see mistakes or want to suggest changes, please create an issue on the source repository.
Reuse
Text and figures are licensed under Creative Commons Attribution CC BY 4.0. Source code is available at https://github.com/epiforecasts/covid, unless otherwise noted. The figures that have been reused from other sources don't fall under this license and can be recognized by a note in their caption: "Figure from ...".