National and Subnational estimates for Germany

Subnational estimates Europe Germany

Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally in Germany. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively.

Using data available up to the: 2022-02-12

Subnational and national estimates are available to download here.

See our see Methods or our paper for an explanation of how these estimates are derived.

National summary

Summary (estimates as of the 2022-02-12)

Table 1: Latest estimates (as of the 2022-02-12) of the number of confirmed cases by date of infection, the expected change in daily confirmed cases, the effective reproduction number, the growth rate, and the doubling time (when negative this corresponds to the halving time). The median and 90% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Estimate
New confirmed cases by infection date 136560 (82760 – 218573)
Expected change in daily cases Likely decreasing
Effective reproduction no. 0.87 (0.67 – 1.1)
Rate of growth -0.037 (-0.095 – 0.025)
Doubling/halving time (days) -19 (28 – -7.3)

Confirmed cases, their estimated date of report, date of infection, and time-varying reproduction number estimates


Figure 1: A.) Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of report. B.) Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection. C.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (lightest ribbon = 90% credible interval; darker ribbon = the 50% credible interval, darkest ribbon = 20% credible interval). Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2022-02-12 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Estimates based on partial data have been adjusted for right truncation of infections. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation. Uncertainty has been curtailed to a maximum of ten times the maximum number of reported cases for plotting purposes.

Subnational breakdown

Figure 2: The results of the latest reproduction number estimates (based on confirmed cases in Germany, stratified by Bundesland, can be summarised by whether confirmed cases are likely increasing or decreasing. This represents the strength of the evidence that the reproduction number in each region is greater than or less than 1, respectively (see the methods for details).

Table 2: Latest estimates (as of the 2022-02-12) of the number of confirmed cases by date of infection, the effective reproduction number, the rate of growth, and the doubling time (when negative this corresponds to the halving time) in each region. The median and 90% credible interval is shown.

Data availability

Limitations

Abbott, Sam, Katharine Sherratt, Jonnie Bevan, Hamish Gibbs, Joel Hellewell, James Munday, Patrick Barks, Paul Campbell, Flavio Finger, and Sebastian Funk. 2020. “Covidregionaldata: Subnational Data for the Covid-19 Outbreak.” - - (-): –. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3957539.
“Tabelle Mit Den Aktuellen Covid-19 Infektionen Pro Tag (Zeitreihe).” 2020. Germany: Robert Koch Institut; Bundesamt für Kartographie und Geodäsie. https://npgeo-corona-npgeo-de.hub.arcgis.com/datasets/dd4580c810204019a7b8eb3e0b329dd6_0.
Xu, Bo, Bernardo Gutierrez, Sarah Hill, Samuel Scarpino, Alyssa Loskill, Jessie Wu, Kara Sewalk, et al. n.d. “Epidemiological Data from the nCoV-2019 Outbreak: Early Descriptions from Publicly Available Data.” http://virological.org/t/epidemiological-data-from-the-ncov-2019-outbreak-early-descriptions-from-publicly-available-data/337.

References

Corrections

If you see mistakes or want to suggest changes, please create an issue on the source repository.

Reuse

Text and figures are licensed under Creative Commons Attribution CC BY 4.0. Source code is available at https://github.com/epiforecasts/covid, unless otherwise noted. The figures that have been reused from other sources don't fall under this license and can be recognized by a note in their caption: "Figure from ...".