Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting in Ukraine. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively (see Methods or our paper for further explanation).
Using data available up to the: 2020-07-30
Note that it takes time for infection to cause symptoms, to get tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection, for a positive test to return and ultimately to enter the case data presented here. In other words, today’s case data are only informative of new infections about two weeks ago. This is reflected in the plots below, which are by date of infection.
|New confirmed cases by infection date||756 (682 – 831)|
|Expected change in daily cases||Likely increasing|
|Effective reproduction no.||1 (1 – 1.1)|
|Doubling/halving time (days)||44 (22 – -2100)|
|Adjusted R-squared||0.53 (0.095 – 0.89)|
Figure 1: A.) Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-07-11 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.