Estimates for Ukraine

Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting in Ukraine. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively (see Methods or our paper for further explanation).

Table of Contents

Using data available up to the: 2020-07-30

Note that it takes time for infection to cause symptoms, to get tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection, for a positive test to return and ultimately to enter the case data presented here. In other words, today’s case data are only informative of new infections about two weeks ago. This is reflected in the plots below, which are by date of infection.

Summary (estimates as of the 2020-07-11)

Table 1: Latest estimates (as of the 2020-07-11) of the number of confirmed cases by date of infection, the expected change in daily confirmed cases, the effective reproduction number, the doubling time (when negative this corresponds to the halving time), and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. The mean and 90% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
New confirmed cases by infection date 756 (682 – 831)
Expected change in daily cases Likely increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1 (1 – 1.1)
Doubling/halving time (days) 44 (22 – -2100)
Adjusted R-squared 0.53 (0.095 – 0.89)

Confirmed cases, their estimated date of infection, and time-varying reproduction number estimates

Figure 1: A.) Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-07-11 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Time-varying rate of growth and doubling time