Estimates for Ukraine

Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting in Ukraine. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively.

Using data available up to the: 2020-10-30

Note that it takes time for infection to cause symptoms, to get tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection, for a positive test to return and ultimately to enter the case data presented here. In other words, today’s case data are only informative of new infections about two weeks ago. This is reflected in the plots below, which are by date of infection.

Estimates are available to download here.

See our see Methods or our paper for an explanation of how these estimates are derived.

Summary (estimates as of the 2020-10-26)

Table 1: Latest estimates (as of the 2020-10-26) of the number of confirmed cases by date of infection, the expected change in daily confirmed cases, the effective reproduction number, the growth rate, and the doubling time (when negative this corresponds to the halving time). The median and 90% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Estimate
New confirmed cases by infection date 9135 (2690 – 17728)
Expected change in daily cases Likely increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1.1 (0.9 – 1.3)
Rate of growth 0.02 (-0.03 – 0.08)
Doubling/halving time (days) 30.1 (9.1 – -25.8)

Confirmed cases, their estimated date of report, date of infection, and time-varying reproduction number estimates


Figure 1: A.) Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of report. B.) Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection. C.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (lightest ribbon = 90% credible interval; darker ribbon = the 50% credible interval, darkest ribbon = 20% credible interval). Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-10-26 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Estimates based on partial data have been adjusted for right truncation of infections. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation. Uncertainty has been curtailed to a maximum of ten times the maximum number of reported cases for plotting purposes.

Corrections

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Text and figures are licensed under Creative Commons Attribution CC BY 4.0. Source code is available at https://github.com/epiforecasts/covid, unless otherwise noted. The figures that have been reused from other sources don't fall under this license and can be recognized by a note in their caption: "Figure from ...".