Estimates for Ards and North Down (United Kingdom)

Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting in Ards and North Down. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively.

Using data available up to the: 2021-12-04

Note that it takes time for infection to cause symptoms, to get tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection, for a positive test to return and ultimately to enter the case data presented here. In other words, today’s case data are only informative of new infections about two weeks ago. This is reflected in the plots below, which are by date of infection.

Estimates are available to download here.

See our see Methods or our paper for an explanation of how these estimates are derived.

Summary (estimates as of the 2021-11-29)

Table 1: Latest estimates (as of the 2021-11-29) of the number of confirmed cases by date of infection, the expected change in daily confirmed cases, the effective reproduction number, the growth rate, and the doubling time (when negative this corresponds to the halving time). The median and 90% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

	Estimate
New confirmed cases by infection date	164 (142 – 187)
Expected change in daily cases	Likely increasing
Effective reproduction no.	1 (1 – 1.1)
Rate of growth	0.01 (-0.0014 – 0.022)
Doubling/halving time (days)	66 (32 – -510)

Confirmed cases, their estimated date of report, date of infection, and time-varying reproduction number estimates