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Case studies
- Estimating reporting delays and nowcasting/forecasting infections with EpiNow2 using HHS COVID-19 hospitalizations by Sam Abbott, Zachary Susswein, and Katie Gostic.
- Estimating reporting delays and nowcasting/forecasting infections with EpiNow2 by Sebastian Funk and Sam Abbott.
- Forecast Covid-19 reported deaths from Covid-19 reported cases (both observed and forecast) for a country in the ECDC by Sam Abbott.
- Explore Covid-19 data truncation in England by Sam Abbott.
- Estimate the effective reproduction number of Covid-19 in last 3 months for a country by Sam Abbott.
- Nowcasting and forecasting the 2022 U.S. mpox outbreak by Kelly Charniga, Zachary J. Madewell, Nicholas B. Masters, Jason Asher, Yoshinori Nakazawa, and Ian H. Spicknall.
Public health surveillance
CDC. 2022. “Technical Report 3: Multi-National Monkeypox Outbreak, United States, 2022.” Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. October 3, 2022. https://archive.cdc.gov/www_cdc_gov/poxvirus/mpox/cases-data/technical-report/report-3.html
CDC Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics. “Current Epidemic Trends (Based on Rt) for States.” Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. https://www.cdc.gov/cfa-modeling-and-forecasting/rt-estimates/index.html. EpiNow2 used to estimate the time-varying reproduction number for COVID-19, influenza, and RSV across U.S. states from emergency department visit data, with estimates updated weekly.
Literature
By package authors
Abbott, Sam, Joel Hellewell, Robin N. Thompson, Katharine Sherratt, Hamish P. Gibbs, Nikos I. Bosse, James D. Munday, et al. 2020. “Estimating the Time-Varying Reproduction Number of SARS-CoV-2 Using National and Subnational Case Counts.” Wellcome Open Research 5 (December): 112. https://doi.org/10.12688/wellcomeopenres.16006.2
Sherratt, Katharine, Sam Abbott, Sophie R. Meakin, Joel Hellewell, James D. Munday, Nikos Bosse, CMMID Working Group, Mark Jit, and Sebastian Funk. 2021. “Exploring Surveillance Data Biases When Estimating the Reproduction Number: With Insights into Subpopulation Transmission of COVID-19 in England.” Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological Sciences 376 (1829): 20200283. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2020.0283
Bosse, Nikos I., Sam Abbott, Johannes Bracher, Habakuk Hain, Billy J. Quilty, Mark Jit, Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases COVID-19 Working Group, Edwin van Leeuwen, Anne Cori, and Sebastian Funk. 2022. “Comparing Human and Model-Based Forecasts of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland.” PLoS Computational Biology 18 (9): e1010405. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010405
Davies, Nicholas G., Sam Abbott, Rosanna C. Barnard, Christopher I. Jarvis, Adam J. Kucharski, James D. Munday, Carl A. B. Pearson, et al. 2021. “Estimated Transmissibility and Impact of SARS-CoV-2 Lineage B.1.1.7 in England.” Science 372 (6538). https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abg3055.
Meakin, Sophie, Sam Abbott, Nikos Bosse, James Munday, Hugo Gruson, Joel Hellewell, Katharine Sherratt, CMMID COVID-19 Working Group, and Sebastian Funk. 2022. “Comparative Assessment of Methods for Short-Term Forecasts of COVID-19 Hospital Admissions in England at the Local Level.” BMC Medicine 20 (1): 86. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12916-022-02271-x
By others
Hay, James A., Lee Kennedy-Shaffer, Sanjat Kanjilal, Niall J. Lennon, Stacey B. Gabriel, Marc Lipsitch, and Michael J. Mina. 2021. “Estimating Epidemiologic Dynamics from Cross-Sectional Viral Load Distributions.” Science 373 (6552). https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abh0635.
Binny, Rachelle N., Audrey Lustig, Shaun C. Hendy, Oliver J. Maclaren, Kannan M. Ridings, Giorgia Vattiato, and Michael J. Plank. 2022. “Real-time Estimation of the Effective Reproduction Number of SARS-CoV-2 in Aotearoa New Zealand.” PeerJ 10: e14119. https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.14119.
Parker, Edyth, Catelyn Anderson, Mark Zeller, Ahmad Tibi, Jennifer L. Havens, Geneviève Laroche, Mehdi Benlarbi, Ardeshir Ariana, Refugio Robles-Sikisaka, Alaa Abdel Latif, Alexander Watts, Abdalla Awidi, Saied A. Jaradat, Karthik Gangavarapu, Karthik Ramesh, Ezra Kurzban, Nathaniel L. Matteson, Alvin X. Han, Laura D. Hughes, Michelle McGraw, Emily Spencer, Laura Nicholson, Kamran Khan, Marc A. Suchard, Joel O. Wertheim, Shirlee Wohl, Marceline Côté, Amid Abdelnour, Kristian G. Andersen, and Issa Abu-Dayyeh. 2022. “Regional Connectivity Drove Bidirectional Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the Middle East during Travel Restrictions.” Nature Communications 13: 4784. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-32536-1.
Ranoa, Diana Rose E., Robin L. Holland, Fadi G. Alnaji, Kelsie J. Green, Leyi Wang, Richard L. Fredrickson, et al. 2022. “Mitigation of SARS-CoV-2 Transmission at a Large Public University.” Nature Communications 13: 3207. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-30833-3.
Aravamuthan, Srikanth, Juan Francisco Mandujano Reyes, Brian S. Yandell, and Dörte Döpfer. 2023. “Real-time Estimation and Forecasting of COVID-19 Cases and Hospitalizations in Wisconsin HERC Regions for Public Health Decision Making Processes.” BMC Public Health 23: 359. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-023-15160-6.
Kerr, Gaige Hunter, Hamada S. Badr, Alisson F. Barbieri, Josh M. Colston, Lauren M. Gardner, Margaret N. Kosek, and Benjamin F. Zaitchik. 2023. “Evolving Drivers of Brazilian SARS-CoV-2 Transmission: A Spatiotemporally Disaggregated Time Series Analysis of Meteorology, Policy, and Human Mobility.” GeoHealth 7 (3): e2022GH000727. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GH000727.
Charniga, Kelly, Zachary J. Madewell, Nicholas B. Masters, Jason Asher, Yoshinori Nakazawa, and Ian H. Spicknall. 2024. “Nowcasting and Forecasting the 2022 U.S. Mpox Outbreak: Support for Public Health Decision Making and Lessons Learned.” Epidemics 47: 100755. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2024.100755.
Richard, Danielle M., Zachary Susswein, Sarah Connolly, Adán Myers y Gutiérrez, Roselyn Thalathara, Kelly Carey, Emily H. Koumans, Diba Khan, Nina B. Masters, Nathan McIntosh, Patrick Corbett, Isaac Ghinai, Rebecca Kahn, Adrienne Keen, Juliet Pulliam, Daniel Sosin, and Katelyn Gostic. 2024. “Detection of Real-Time Changes in Direction of COVID-19 Transmission Using National- and State-Level Epidemic Trends Based on Rt Estimates — United States Overall and New Mexico, April–October 2024.” MMWR Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report 73 (46): 1058–1063. https://doi.org/10.15585/mmwr.mm7346a3.
Costa, João Marcos Nacif da, Luis Gustavo Corbellini, Nicolás Céspedes Cárdenas, Fernando Henrique Sauter Groff, and Gustavo Machado. 2025. “Assessing Epidemiological Parameters and Dissemination Characteristics of the 2000 and 2001 Foot-and-Mouth Disease Outbreaks in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil.” Ciência Rural 55: e20240540. https://doi.org/10.1590/0103-8478cr20240540.
Pekar, Jonathan E., Yanjun Wang, Jade C. Wang, Yiyang Shao, Faten Taki, Leah A. Forgione, Hemi Amin, Timothy Clabby, Kathy Johnson, Lucia V. Torian, Straten L. Braunstein, Preeti Pathela, Esther Omoregie, Stella Hughes, Marc A. Suchard, Tetyana I. Vasylyeva, Philippe Lemey, and Joel O. Wertheim. 2025. “Transmission Dynamics of the 2022 Mpox Epidemic in New York City.” Nature Medicine 31 (5): 1464–1473. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-025-03526-9.